Photo by Jesse Orrico on Unsplash
Record-breaking natural disasters caused by rising global temperatures have cost the United States billions of dollars, and according to a recently released report by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO), disaster costs will continue to rise with the coastal sea level.[1] Due to greenhouse gas accumulation, the years between 2000 and 2015 were among the hottest ever recorded.[2] The temperature rise has caused stronger storms and floods,[3] equatorial temperatures higher than livable standards, droughts that increase the risk of forest fires, the desertification of arable land, and health hazards due to heat,[4] migrating pests, and disease.[5] Reports from the White House Office of Management and Budget demonstrate that the federal government has already paid out $350 billion in relief to states over the last decade to help cover the costs of these catastrophic climate changes.[6] That lump sum covers $205 billion for domestic disaster response and relief, $90 billion for crop and flood insurance, $34 billion for wildland fire management, and $28 billion for maintenance and repairs to federal facilities and federally managed lands, infrastructure, and waterways. The GAO predicts an increase from $9-28 billion per year in disaster expenses over the next century.[7]
Whether the federal government will be willing or able to continue supporting state emergency needs is in question. Although disaster-related expenses are increasing, the White House is currently pushing cuts to relief spending for the 2018 budget. FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, is facing cuts of $600 million in state and local disaster grants.[8] While the risk of encountering unprecedented natural disasters grows with every degree increase of global temperature, the risk of compounding natural disasters across whole regions will also grow, straining and depleting local, state, and federal resources. Currently, if a state, tribal government, or municipality qualifies for federal disaster assistance, FEMA provides over 75% of Public Assistance costs, 100% of Individual Assistance costs, and Hazard Mitigation services that assist communities with long-term disaster prevention.[9] Now with proposed cuts to FEMA and rising disaster management costs, federal relief budgets may be exhausted faster than can be anticipated. In this case, states will be faced with the bill.
Local and state governments are the first responders to disaster, in terms of both direct aid and initial financial responsibility. Many states have a budget plan to accommodate the expected catastrophe. Others have developed specific budgets to respond to multiple disasters, like Alaska’s plan for two state-level emergencies and two federally declared emergencies.[10] By contrast, Pennsylvania only has enough in its state reserves to cover government operations for two hours, and New Jersey’s emergency fund has been empty since 2009.[11] Even the most well-prepared states lean on federal assistance for disasters; in the midst of devastating wildfires, for instance, Montana has already depleted its $30 million special fund for wildfires and has petitioned FEMA for assistance.[12] California is well on its way through its $427 million Emergency Wildfire Suppression Fund,[13] and the Santa Ana wind season is just beginning, with a forecast of record-breaking heat and ferocity expected to exacerbate existing fires.[14] All states can expect that once a disaster breaks $133 per capita in costs, FEMA can appeal to the President for permission to fund 90% of eligible recovery costs instead of 75%.[15]
Possible federal disaster relief budget cuts combined with a daunting forecast of climate-change-induced natural disasters will financially cripple states that aren’t prepared. How, then, can any state prepare for the kinds of calamity climate change will bring? It hasn’t helped that most states have done little in the last fifteen years to change their methods of disaster budgeting. While some states like Alaska, Indiana, and North Dakota have already expanded their disaster relief programs, no state has saved money for unusual natural disasters that extends beyond the fiscal year. The funds that most states allocate for relief are often complicated to access, or require legislative permission that is difficult to obtain quickly, especially if the state congress is out of session. While some states, like Missouri, have altered the requirements for accessing funds to make it easier for first-responder agencies to get the money they need, the money Missouri has available would still be insufficient for helping the state through a massive crop failure without federal assistance.[16]
Action will look different in every state, but there are some initial steps that are universally necessary. It is crucial that states reformat their disaster response budgets, first by committing to making the funds easily accessible, and then implementing taxes to grow their supplementary relief funds continuously across fiscal year budgets to prepare for the growing expenses of infrastructure damage, loss of industry, energy needs, and health-related problems expected to arise as a result of compounding natural changes.[17] Committing to general changes to infrastructure that mitigate contributions to climate change must also fall be a state responsibility, in the absence of federal leadership and dissolving EPA mandates.
Southwest
States in the Southwest will need to increase their access to a water supply, perhaps through storage or attainment technology. The region will also need to arrange for growing electricity demand, as rising temperatures in heat-sink cities like Phoenix, Arizona will require and increase in air conditioning usage for human survival. The southwestern regions that do not have the benefit of elevation will see an average temperature rise of 5 degrees Fahrenheit, and a month’s extension to their summer heat season.[18] The infrastructure that southwestern states implement to meet these needs will have to be sustainable to avoid the cyclical induction of climate change caused disasters. This might, for instance, involve installing solar farms to meet increasing electricity demand instead of greenhouse gas emitting coal plants.
Northeast
In the Northeast, rising coastlines are likely to have a massive financial impact. Rising sea levels will encroach on oceanfront property and leaving nearby inland areas more vulnerable to storm surges. The GAO predicts that coastal property losses will amount to between four and six billion dollars per year from 2020 through 2039 (increasing to $51-$74 billion per year towards the end of the century).[19] States on the Atlantic can expect fallout from flooding on tourism and long term infrastructure erosion from encroaching seawater, as well as interruption of the Atlantic fishing industry. As the Arctic warms, the polar vortex—a swift, circular current of air that traps the arctic temperatures at the north pole—will shift, circulating sub-freezing air down into lower latitudes of the northern hemisphere.[20] The shifting polar vortex may result in longer, colder winters for the northern states, causing unexpected frosts on pre-harvest crops and spring growth.[21] As equatorial temperature rises drive warmer air into the temperate zones, new agricultural pests and diseases will continue to move north.[22] States in the Northeast will need to increase their insurance against crop failure, and may need to set their coastal infrastructure further inland, or otherwise modify it to resist the rising tides. People will need to be rehomed, and any facilities on the coast, like wastewater treatment plants or commerce shipping and loading docks, will need to be protected or rebuilt.
Northwest
Given the Northwest coastlines are not as densely developed as the Northeast’s, rising coastlines will have less of a devastating impact on infrastructure in this region. There will be continued effects of ocean acidification, however, which have already damaged the fishing industry, though increased agricultural yield due to a longer, warmer growing season should help balance the region’s revenue loss.
Southeast
In 2017, the Southeast United States endured an astounding barrage of hurricanes. Hurricane Harvey, double the size of 2005’s Hurricane Katrina and the second-most expensive natural disaster in the world, has caused an estimated $198 billion in damages.[23] Though FEMA has already paid out $1.5 billion in flood insurance, assistance grants, and low-interest disaster loans,[24] and though Congress has approved $15 billion in disaster aid to Texas, these funds barely cover 30 days of recovery work, leaving Texas to flounder as federal aid comes piecemeal, if at all.[25] Louisiana is still rebuilding itself in the aftermath Hurricane Katrina, and Florida is facing a widening budget gap as Hurricane Irma recovery costs grow. Florida has accrued a $3.8 billion cash reserve fund that it can use in the absence of federal aid to cover Hurricane Irma costs, though the state is still paying recovery costs from more than ten years ago, and another hurricane next season will deplete those reserves.[26] States vulnerable to hurricanes will need to find the resources for creating large disaster recovery funds, and state governors will need to create protocol that enables them to call in the United States Coast Guard and National Guard as federal support immediately, in order to prevent the neglect of citizen rescue that was seen in Louisiana’s response to Katrina.[27] The southeastern states also need to prepare for heat-related health concerns, especially the more central and inland areas. These states can also expect interruption of their offshore oil drilling as tropical storms continue to batter the coastline.
The Great Plains
For the northern states in the Great Plains region, the polar vortex may extend winters and cause unexpected freezing weather patterns that can damage harvest and planting cycles. Central and southern Great Plains areas can expect decreased precipitation and increased heat.[28] Agricultural practices in these regions can expand their aquifer infrastructure to collect and store more water, though wells in parts of Texas are already drying up. Farmers might also choose crops that require less water, such as millet instead of corn, and might adopt water-preserving farming practices like no-till systems, which allow weeds and crop residue to help the soil retain more water. GMO technology is also helping to create hardier plants, though widespread adoption of GMO foods is limited at the moment.[29]
The Midwest
Like the northern Great Plains states, the Midwest may see increased polar vortex activity, though overall the states are experiencing rising temperatures and less cold-related deaths. Midwestern agriculture will feel the stress of changing weather patterns, and the region can expect crop-endangering pests from the south to move further north.[30] Heavy downpours and flooding will damage infrastructure, and the Great Lakes dramatic seasonal temperature fluctuations will be exacerbated.[31] The Midwest will need to invest in ways to manage toxic algae blooms in the Great Lakes, insure against crop losses, improve flood management, and develop water storage for drought seasons.
In the absence of federal action, states need to take responsibility for the growing danger to their populations and reformat their budget strategies to account of the unexpected, unaccountable changes climate change can bring. In their 2017 report on potential economic risks, the GAO strongly recommended the federal government address the growing severity of disasters induced by climate change. Right now, the words “climate change” fail to appear in the EPA’s recently released four-year plan, and the agency has formally rescinded the Clean Power Plan that was installed to guide reductions in carbon emissions from power plants.[32] Meanwhile, in the Department of Energy, former Governor Rick Perry has proposed subsidizing coal power plants, with no mention of subsidies for sustainable energy development.[33] Federal guidance through this new age of climate change may not be forthcoming, and as a result, each state must look forward to its individual needs and prospective dangers and prepare.
References
- United States Government Accountability Office. Climate Change, Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure: Report to Congressional Requesters. [Washington, D.C.]: United States Government Accountability Office, 2017. http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo85980. ↑
- Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisors, Climate Change; the Fiscal Risks Facing the Federal Government. [Preliminary Report for the Executive Office] November, 2016. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/omb/reports/omb_climate_change_fiscal_risk_report.pdf ↑
- Lee, Benjamin Seiyon, Murali Haran, and Klaus Keller. “Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate.” Geophysical Research Letters 44, no. 20 (2017). doi:10.1002/2017gl074606. ↑
- Loomis, Brandon, and Lily Altavena. “Arizona’s Heat Is Getting Worse – and It’s Killing People.” Arizona Central; USA Today. June 24, 2017. Accessed February 26, 2018. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2017/06/24/arizona-deadly-summer-heat-getting-worse/424598001/. ↑
- Nielsen, David, David Wolfe, and Sally Mackenzie. “Reinventing Farming for a Changing Climate.” Interview by Flora Lichtman. Talk of the Nation. Transcript. National Public Radio. May 24, 2013. Retrieved from: https://www.npr.org/2013/05/24/186450905/reinventing-farming-for-a-changing-climate ↑
- Friedman, Lisa. “Congressional Auditor Urges Action to Address Climate Change.” The New York Times. October 23, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/23/climate/gao-climate-change-cost.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness-energy-environment. ↑
- United States Government Accountability Office. Climate Change, Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure: Report to Congressional Requesters. [Washington, D.C.]: United States Government Accountability Office, 2017. http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo85980. ↑
- Nixon, Ron. “Drumpf’s Leader for FEMA Wins Praise, but Proposed Budget Cuts Don’t.” The New York Times. July 21st, 2017 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/21/us/politics/trumps-leader-for-fema-wins-praise-but-proposed-budget-cuts-dont.html ↑
- United States Government Accountability Office. Budgeting for Disasters: Approaches to Budgeting for Disasters in Selected States. [Washington, D.C.]: United States Government Accountability Office, 2017. Retrieved from: https://www.gao.gov/assets/670/669277.pdf ↑
- United States Government Accountability Office. Budgeting for Disasters: Approaches to Budgeting for Disasters in Selected States. [Washington, D.C.]: United States Government Accountability Office, 2017. Retrieved from: https://www.gao.gov/assets/670/669277.pdf ↑
- The PEW Charitable Trusts.Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis. 2018 http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/multimedia/data-visualizations/2014/fiscal-50#ind5 ↑
- Volz, Matt. “U.S. Government Reverses Denial of Montana Firefighting Aid.” Associated Press. July 27, 2017. Retrieved from https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/montana/articles/2017-07-27/montana-officials-push-fema-for-wildfire-support ↑
- O’Leary, Kevin. “Can Budget-Strapped California Afford More Wildfires?” Time. September 7, 2009. Time Inc. Retrieved from http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1920815,00.html ↑
- Rice, Doyle. “Record Heat, Fierce Santa Ana Winds to Fuel Wildfire Threat in California.” USA Today. October 22, 2017. Retrieved from https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/10/22/record-heat-fierce-santa-ana-winds-fuel-wildfire-threat-california/788584001/ ↑
- FEMA. Public Assistance: Frequently Asked Questions. Department of Homeland Security, 2017. Retrieved from: https://www.fema.gov/public-assistance-frequently-asked-questions#T09 ↑
- United States Government Accountability Office. Budgeting for Disasters: Approaches to Budgeting for Disasters in Selected States. [Washington, D.C.]: United States Government Accountability Office, 2017. Retrieved from: https://www.gao.gov/assets/670/669277.pdf ↑
- United States Government Accountability Office. Climate Change, Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure: Report to Congressional Requesters. [Washington, D.C.]: United States Government Accountability Office, 2017. http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo85980. ↑
- Loomis, Brandon, and Lily Altavena. “Arizona’s Heat Is Getting Worse – and It’s Killing People.” Arizona Central; USA Today. June 24, 2017. Accessed February 26, 2018. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2017/06/24/arizona-deadly-summer-heat-getting-worse/424598001/. ↑
- United States Government Accountability Office. Climate Change, Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure: Report to Congressional Requesters. [Washington, D.C.]: United States Government Accountability Office, 2017. http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo85980. ↑
- Waldman, Scott. “Dreaded Polar Vortex May Be Shifting.” Scientific American. October 25, 2016. Accessed February 26, 2018. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dreaded-polar-vortex-may-be-shifting/. ↑
- Waldman, Scott. “Dreaded Polar Vortex May Be Shifting.” Scientific American. October 25, 2016. Accessed February 26, 2018. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dreaded-polar-vortex-may-be-shifting/. ↑
- Nielsen, David, David Wolfe, and Sally Mackenzie. “Reinventing Farming for a Changing Climate.” Interview by Flora Lichtman. Talk of the Nation. Transcript. National Public Radio. May 24, 2013. Retrieved from: https://www.npr.org/2013/05/24/186450905/reinventing-farming-for-a-changing-climate ↑
- Hicks, Michael, and Mark Burton. Hurricane Harvey: Preliminary Estimates of Commercial and Public Sector Damages on the Houston Metropolitan Area. Issue brief. Muncie, IN: Center for Business and Economic Research, Miller College of Business, Ball State Univesity, 2017. Retrieved from: https://projects.cberdata.org/reports/HurricaneHarvey2017.pdf ↑
- U.S. Government. Federal Emergency Management Agency. “Historic Disaster Response to Hurricane Harvey in Texas.” News release, September 22, 2017. https://www.fema.gov/news-release/2017/09/22/historic-disaster-response-hurricane-harvey-texas. ↑
- Horowitz, Julia. “Hurricanes Irma and Harvey Have Racked up Billions in Damages. Who Pays?” September 26, 2017. CNN Money. http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/15/news/economy/irma-harvey-damage-who-pays/index.html. ↑
- Sarkissian, Arek. “Growing Storm Recovery Costs Widen State Budget Gap.” October 25, 2017. USA Today. http://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2017/10/25/growing-storm-recovery-costs-widen-state-budget-gap/797916001/. ↑
- Grunwald, Michael, and Susan B. Glasser. “How a City Slowly Drowned.” In Public Administraion; Concepts and Cases, edited by Richard J. Stillman, III, 227-38. 9th ed. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Cengage Learning, 2009. ↑
- Waldman, Scott. “Dreaded Polar Vortex May Be Shifting.” Scientific American. October 25, 2016. Accessed February 26, 2018. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dreaded-polar-vortex-may-be-shifting/. ↑
- Nielsen, David, David Wolfe, and Sally Mackenzie. “Reinventing Farming for a Changing Climate.” Interview by Flora Lichtman. Talk of the Nation. Transcript. National Public Radio. May 24, 2013. Retrieved from: https://www.npr.org/2013/05/24/186450905/reinventing-farming-for-a-changing-climate ↑
- U.S. Global Change Research Program. (2014) National Climate Assessment; Midwest. Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Retrieved from: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/regions/midwest ↑
- U.S. Global Change Research Program. (2014) National Climate Assessment; Midwest. Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Retrieved from: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/regions/midwest ↑
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Draft FY 2018-2022 EPA Strategic Plan Public Review Draft (Strategic Plan Docket). Retrieved from: https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=EPA-HQ-OA-2017-0533 ↑
- Freeman, Jody, and Joseph Goffman. “Rick Perry’s Anti-Market Plan to Help Coal.” October 25, 2017. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/25/opinion/rick-perry-coal-antimarket.html. ↑
