Flood on Their Hands: How the Trade War Has Failed Rural America

Photo by: meriç tuna

Written by: James Warren

Edited by: Kate Long

The “500-year” Flood of 1993

In the summer of 1992, rain poured down across the Midwest, saturating the reservoirs of the Missouri and Mississippi Basins.[1] Heavier than average precipitation followed throughout the coming seasons, and increased in volume.[2] The result, the Great Flood of 1993, was one of the most devastating floods in American history. The flood resulted in the deaths of 50 people, caused $15 billion in damage, and set records in 92 recorded locations throughout the Midwest.[3]

Figure 1: Satellite imaging of the Great Flood of 1993[4]

Many towns and cities were located around the floodplains, making a natural disaster of this magnitude devastating for the many people who live and work here. Unfortunately for the farmers affected by the disaster, U.S. relief was insufficient and slow to arrive, prompting locals to call for bolstered federal farm flood relief.[5];[6]

In 1993, scientists referred to the Great Flood as a “500-year flood” indicating that the chance of a flood of this magnitude occurring is once every 500 years.[7] By the year 2100, climate change and the related phenomena are expected to increase floodplains’ size by 45%, increasing flood risk for more towns and cities, and amplify the magnitude of storms.[8] The negative effects of climate change are already having profound consequences, which could potentially be ameliorated through policy changes.

The Devastating Floods of 2019

Over the 2018-2019 winter, the Midwest experienced unprecedented precipitation. In April, the already saturated rivers continued to fill as high temperatures and rainfall melted the snow, swelling the Mississippi River.[9];[10] Powerful, enduring storms followed throughout 2019; as a result, the rivers and surrounding areas had no time to return to normal levels.[11] There were 14 severe weather events in 2019 that caused over a billion dollars of damage each.[12] The midwestern floods accounted for three of those events.[13] Riverside communities have incurred $1.2 billion in infrastructure damage alone, but the costs extend beyond roads and utilities.[14]

Figure 2: Three of the billion-dollar disasters in 2019 were caused by floods[15]

The floods can also result in public health concerns: sewage can overflow and toxic waste from Superfund sites (i.e. polluted locations) can flow into the rivers.[16]

Ruined Crops, Ruined Trade, Ruined Bank Accounts

In March of 2019, the Midwestern floods covered over a million acres of farmland, destroying any crops that were planted and cutting into farmers’ profits.[17] In Nebraska, crop loss totaled $800 million.[18] The current trade war with China has resulted in American farmers stockpiling nearly 7 billion bushels of grains which would normally be exported.[19] In response to tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on Chinese products, China imposed tariffs of its own and canceled orders on “products made in Republican districts,” such as agricultural machinery and tools, whiskey, and grain.[20] China is by far the world’s largest importer of soy, leaving tariff-burdened American farmers with stockpiles of this and other grains they have been unable to sell.[21]

Figure 3: China produces the demand for the vast majority of soybeans[22]

In March, at the onset of the Midwestern floods, U.S. farmers held the largest amount of soy and the third-largest amount of corn stocks in American history.[23] These stored grains were soiled by the floods, as waters destroyed silos and grain bins, making the grain worthless and necessitating the destruction of the stockpiled yield.[24] The destruction of these bins has resulted in losses of billions of dollars worth of grain, losses which would not have been as severe without the trade war, and losses which farmers, who have seen their lowest income in decades, cannot afford.[25];[26];[27]

Given the financial distress Midwestern farmers are suffering because of the trade war, one would hope the Federal Administration would have developed a contingency plan for farm relief. While the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) do provide certain types of relief, such as aiding in the cleanup of debris deposited by floods and insurance for crop ground, there is no federal relief for destroyed stored grain. [28];[29] While USDA provided $12 billion to recoup losses for farmers affected by the trade war in 2018, and another $14.5 billion in 2019, these funds did not adequately cover losses in 2018 and fell woefully short of providing the relief to farmers whose grain is now unsellable.[30];[31] Even the farmers who qualify for existing types of crop insurance can be devastated by large deductibles.[32]

Conclusion

Scientists thought the disaster of the Great Flood was a 500-year event, but climate predictions indicate floods will increase in frequency, size, and intensity in the near future.[33] In light of this, a policy must consider those who are most prone to the effects of climate change, including stable and reliable trade and economic policy. The trade war has failed to protect the livelihoods of farmers, and by shortsightedly failing to prepare for climate-change-related disasters, the trade war could result in the bankruptcy of thousands of farmers across the Midwest.[34] In 2019, there were 580 farm bankruptcies, up 24% over the previous year, even though over a third of all farm income comes from federal relief.[35]

Figure 4: Total chapter 12 farm bankruptcies by state[36]

Staunch conservative defenders of the president, such as Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, have spoken out against how the trade war disadvantages farmers and how the relief is inadequate. Senator Paul said, “Tariffs are taxes that punish American consumers and producers. If tariffs punish farmers, the answer is not welfare for farmers – the answer is remove the tariffs.”[37] In coming years, there will be more climate disasters like this one, affecting the lives of people across the U.S. and the world; policymakers must construct policy which is mindful of climate shifts and protects those most affected by these changes.[38] This trade war causes undue economic hardship for vulnerable citizens by putting them into financial distress or bankruptcy – offering few protections for those very citizens the aforementioned trade policies were intended to support. If the Trump Administration wishes to serve U.S. farmers and citizens, a de-escalation of economic tensions with China is a way forward.

References

Ayres, B. Drummond. “What’s Left From the Great Flood of ’93.” The New York Times. The New York Times, August 10, 1993. https://www.nytimes.com/1993/08/10/us/the-midwest-flooding-what-s-left-from-the-great-flood-of-93.html.

Begemann, Sonya. “Flooded Grain in Storage Not Eligible for Current Disaster Aid Program.” AG Web Farm Journal, April 3, 2019. https://www.agweb.com/article/flooded-grain-in-storage-not-eligible-for-current-disaster-aid-programs.

Daniele Palumbo & Ana Nicolaci da Costa. “Trade War: US-China Trade Battle in Charts.” BBC News. BBC, May 10, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48196495.

Denchak, Melissa. “Flooding and Climate Change: Everything You Need to Know.” NRDC, January 3, 2020. https://www.nrdc.org/stories/flooding-and-climate-change-everything-you-need-know.

Erdman, Jonathan. “The Record-Long Mississippi River Flood of 2019 Is Finally Ending, But One Big Concern Remains.” The Weather Channel. The Weather Channel, July 29, 2019. https://weather.com/safety/floods/news/2019-07-29-record-long-mississippi-river-flood-ends.

Hanna, Jason, and Marlena Baldacci. “The Midwest Flooding Has Killed Livestock, Ruined Harvests and Has Farmers Worried for Their Future.” CNN. Cable News Network, March 27, 2019. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/21/us/floods-nebraska-iowa-agriculture-farm-loss/index.html.

Hirabayashi, Yukiko, Roobavannan Mahendran, Sujan Koirala, Lisako Konoshima, Dai Yamazaki, Satoshi Watanabe, Hyungjun Kim, and Shinjiro Kanae. “Global Flood Risk under Climate Change.” Nature Climate Change 3, no. 9 (September 2013): 816–21. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911.

Honig, Esther. “Bankruptcy Filings Indicate Times Are Tough For Many U.S. Farmers.” NPR. NPR, April 3, 2019. https://www.npr.org/2019/04/03/708664013/bankruptcy-filings-indicate-times-are-tough-for-many-u-s-farmers.

Huffstutter, P.J. “Exclusive: More than 1 Million Acres of U.S. Cropland Ravaged by Floods.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, March 30, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-floods-exclusive/exclusive-more-than-1-million-acres-of-u-s-cropland-ravaged-by-floods-idUSKCN1RA2AW.

Douglas Jehl, “Mississippi Flooding Is Reviving a Debate On Government Role,” The New York Times (The New York Times, April 27, 2001), https://www.nytimes.com/2001/04/27/us/mississippi-flooding-is-reviving-a-debate-on-government-role.html)

John, Newton. “Farm Bankruptcies Rise Again.” American Farm Bureau Federation – The Voice of Agriculture, October 30, 2019. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/farm-bankruptcies-rise-again.

Kilborn, Peter T. “Flood Victims Find Tortuous Path to U.S. Relief Agency Money.” The New York Times. The New York Times, August 9, 1993. https://www.nytimes.com/1993/08/09/us/flood-victims-find-tortuous-path-to-us-relief-agency-money.html.

Pamuk, Humeyra. “U.S. Farmers Face Devastation Following Midwest Floods.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, March 21, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-agriculture/us-farmers-face-devastation-following-Midwest-floods-idUSKCN1R12J0.

Paul, Rand. Twitter Post. July 24, 2018, 9:19AM. https://twitter.com/randpaul/status/1021791878663090177?lang=en.

Polansek, Tom. “U.S. Disaster Aid Won’t Cover Crops Drowned by Midwest Floods.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, April 2, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-iowa/u-s-disaster-aid-wont-cover-crops-drowned-by-Midwest-floods-idUSKCN1RE0BU.

Rappeport, Alan. “A $12 Billion Program to Help Farmers Stung by Trump’s Trade War Has Aided Few.” The New York Times. The New York Times, November 19, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/us/politics/farming-trump-trade-war.html.

Reality Check Team. “The Bean at the Heart of America’s Trade War.” BBC News. BBC, August 2, 2018. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-44983950.

Redlener, Irwin. “The Deadly Cost of Failing Infrastructure in Historic Midwest Floods.” TheHill, April 5, 2019. https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/437550-ignoring-warning-signs-made-historic-Midwest-floods-more-dangerous.

Smith, Adam. “Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Overview.” National Climatic Data Center. Accessed January 21, 2020. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/.

Thomas, Crystal, and Bryan Lowry. “’Hand That’s Feeding the World Is Getting Bit.’ Farmers Cope with Floods, Trade War.” kansascity.com. The Kansas City Star, April 7, 2019. https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article228875499.html.

Wilson, Jeff, and Alan Bjerga. “U.S. Farm Income to Hit 12-Year Low.” Bloomberg.com. Bloomberg, February 7, 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-07/u-s-farm-income-to-hit-12-year-low-as-agriculture-rout-persists.

US Department of Commerce, and Noaa. “Spring Flooding Summary 2019.” Spring Flooding Summary 2019. NOAA’s National Weather Service, June 13, 2019. https://www.weather.gov/dvn/summary_SpringFlooding_2019.

US Department of Commerce, and Noaa. “The Great Flood of 1993.” The Great Flood of 1993. NOAA’s National Weather Service, April 17, 2015. https://www.weather.gov/dvn/071993_greatflood.

“25 Years Later: The Great Flood of 1993 Remains Worst River Flooding US Has Ever Seen.” Local Weather from AccuWeather.com – Superior Accuracy. Accessed January 21, 2020. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/25-years-later-the-great-flood-of-1993-remains-worst-river-flooding-us-has-ever-seen/70005654.

“Extreme Weather Has Damaged at Least $1.2 Billion of Infrastructure so Far in 2019.” CNBC. CNBC, August 11, 2019. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/11/extreme-weather-has-damaged-at-least-1point2-billion-of-infrastructure-so-far-in-2019.html.

“Market Facilitation Program.” Market Facilitation Program | Farmers.gov. Accessed January 21, 2020. https://www.farmers.gov/manage/mfp.

“Midwestern Flooding Damaging Grain, Storage.” World Grain RSS. Accessed January 21, 2020. https://www.world-grain.com/articles/11841-Midwestern-flooding-damaging-grain-storage.

  1. US Department of Commerce and NOAA, “The Great Flood of 1993,” The Great Flood of 1993 (NOAA’s National Weather Service, April 17, 2015), https://www.weather.gov/dvn/071993_greatflood). ↑

  2. Ibid. ↑

  3. “25 Years Later: The Great Flood of 1993 Remains Worst River Flooding US Has Ever Seen,” Local Weather from AccuWeather.com – Superior Accuracy™, accessed January 21, 2020, https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/25-years-later-the-great-flood-of-1993-remains-worst-river-flooding-us-has-ever-seen/70005654). ↑

  4. Ibid. ↑

  5. Peter T. Kilborn, “Flood Victims Find Tortuous Path to U.S. Relief Agency Money,” The New York Times (The New York Times, August 9, 1993), https://www.nytimes.com/1993/08/09/us/flood-victims-find-tortuous-path-to-us-relief-agency-money.html) ↑

  6. Douglas Jehl, “Mississippi Flooding Is Reviving a Debate On Government Role,” The New York Times (The New York Times, April 27, 2001), https://www.nytimes.com/2001/04/27/us/mississippi-flooding-is-reviving-a-debate-on-government-role.html) ↑

  7. B. Drummond Ayres, “What’s Left From the Great Flood of ’93,” The New York Times (The New York Times, August 10, 1993), https://www.nytimes.com/1993/08/10/us/the-midwest-flooding-what-s-left-from-the-great-flood-of-93.html) ↑

  8. Melissa Denchak, “Flooding and Climate Change: Everything You Need to Know,” NRDC, January 3, 2020, https://www.nrdc.org/stories/flooding-and-climate-change-everything-you-need-know). ↑

  9. Jonathan Erdman, “The Record-Long Mississippi River Flood of 2019 Is Finally Ending, But One Big Concern Remains,” The Weather Channel (The Weather Channel, July 29, 2019), https://weather.com/safety/floods/news/2019-07-29-record-long-mississippi-river-flood-ends). ↑

  10. US Department of Commerce and Noaa, “Spring Flooding Summary 2019,” Spring Flooding Summary 2019 (NOAA’s National Weather Service, June 13, 2019), https://www.weather.gov/dvn/summary_SpringFlooding_2019). ↑

  11. Ibid. ↑

  12. Adam Smith, “Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Overview,” National Climatic Data Center, accessed January 21, 2020, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/). ↑

  13. Ibid. ↑

  14. Ibid. ↑

  15. Adam Smith, “Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Overview,” National Climatic Data Center, accessed January 21, 2020, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/). ↑

  16. Irwin Redlener, “The Deadly Cost of Failing Infrastructure in Historic Midwest Floods,” The Hill, April 5, 2019, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/437550-ignoring-warning-signs-made-historic-Midwest-floods-more-dangerous) ↑

  17. P.J. Huffstutter, “Exclusive: More than 1 Million Acres of U.S. Cropland Ravaged by Floods,” Reuters (Thomson Reuters, March 30, 2019), https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-floods-exclusive/exclusive-more-than-1-million-acres-of-u-s-cropland-ravaged-by-floods-idUSKCN1RA2AW). ↑

  18. Redlener, “The Deadly Cost of Failing Infrastructure in Historic Midwest Floods,” The Hill, April 5, 2019. ↑

  19. Humeyra Pamuk, “U.S. Farmers Face Devastation Following Midwest Floods,” Reuters (Thomson Reuters, March 21, 2019), https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-agriculture/us-farmers-face-devastation-following-Midwest-floods-idUSKCN1R12J0). ↑

  20. Daniele Palumbo & Ana Nicolaci da Costa, “Trade War: US-China Trade Battle in Charts,” BBC News (BBC, May 10, 2019), https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48196495). ↑

  21. Reality Check Team, “The Bean at the Heart of America’s Trade War,” BBC News (BBC, August 2, 2018), https://www.bbc.com/news/world-44983950). ↑

  22. Ibid. ↑

  23. Tom Polansek, “U.S. Disaster Aid Won’t Cover Crops Drowned by Midwest Floods,” Reuters (Thomson Reuters, April 2, 2019), https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-iowa/u-s-disaster-aid-wont-cover-crops-drowned-by-Midwest-floods-idUSKCN1RE0BU). ↑

  24. Pamuk, “U.S. Farmers Face Devastation Following Midwest Floods,” Reuters. ↑

  25. “Midwestern Flooding Damaging Grain, Storage,” World Grain RSS, accessed January 21, 2020, https://www.world-grain.com/articles/11841-Midwestern-flooding-damaging-grain-storage). ↑

  26. Jeff Wilson and Alan Bjerga, “U.S. Farm Income to Hit 12-Year Low,” Bloomberg.com (Bloomberg, February 7, 2019), https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-07/u-s-farm-income-to-hit-12-year-low-as-agriculture-rout-persists). ↑

  27. Crystal Thomas and Bryan Lowry, “’Hand That’s Feeding the World Is Getting Bit.’ Farmers Cope with Floods, Trade War,” kansascity.com (The Kansas City Star, April 7, 2019), https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article228875499.html) ↑

  28. Polansek, “U.S. Disaster Aid Won’t Cover Crops Drowned by Midwest Floods,” Reuters. ↑

  29. Sonya Begemann, “Flooded Grain in Storage Not Eligible for Current Disaster Aid Program,” AG Web Farm Journal, April 3, 2019, https://www.agweb.com/article/flooded-grain-in-storage-not-eligible-for-current-disaster-aid-programs. ↑

  30. Alan Rappeport, “A $12 Billion Program to Help Farmers Stung by Trump’s Trade War Has Aided Few,” The New York Times (The New York Times, November 19, 2018), https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/us/politics/farming-trump-trade-war.html). ↑

  31. “Market Facilitation Program,” Market Facilitation Program | Farmers.gov, accessed January 21, 2020, https://www.farmers.gov/manage/mfp). ↑

  32. Jason Hanna and Marlena Baldacci, “The Midwest Flooding Has Killed Livestock, Ruined Harvests and Has Farmers Worried for Their Future,” CNN (Cable News Network, March 27, 2019), https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/21/us/floods-nebraska-iowa-agriculture-farm-loss/index.html). ↑

  33. Yukiko Hirabayashi et al., “Global Flood Risk under Climate Change,” Nature Climate Change 3, no. 9 (September 2013): pp. 816-821, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911) ↑

  34. Honig, Esther. “Bankruptcy Filings Indicate Times Are Tough For Many U.S. Farmers.” NPR. NPR, April 3, 2019. https://www.npr.org/2019/04/03/708664013/bankruptcy-filings-indicate-times-are-tough-for-many-u-s-farmers. ↑

  35. Newton John, “Farm Bankruptcies Rise Again,” American Farm Bureau Federation – The Voice of Agriculture, October 30, 2019, https://www.fb.org/market-intel/farm-bankruptcies-rise-again). ↑

  36. Ibid. ↑

  37. Paul, Rand. Twitter Post. July 24, 2018, 9:19AM. https://twitter.com/randpaul/status/1021791878663090177?lang=en. ↑

  38. Redlener, “The Deadly Cost of Failing Infrastructure in Historic Midwest Floods,” The Hill, April 5, 2019. ↑

James Warren

James Warren is a CIPA Fellow ('21) concentrating in Government, Politics, and Policy Studies. Prior to his study at Cornell, he worked for the Denver County Court in the Criminal Division as a Judicial Assistant. His research interests lie in environmental policy, economics and the interplay between the public and private sector, effective altruism, and criminal justice reform.
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