By: John Mathiason, Ph.D.
Edited By: Alejandro J. Ramos
The US election will deeply affect UN work in 2025 and suggests the need to re-examine global problems and International organizations. The evidence for the world of 2025, like the rest of the 21st century, will have to deal with what I call the Four Problems of the Apocalypse. These are problems which, if not solved quickly, can bring human life, as we know it, to an end. I call them problems of the apocalypse, because the term refers to “the complete final destruction of the world”, as described in the biblical book of Revelation. The term has been around for thousands of years but is now more likely to happen and this is why apocalypse is the right term to use because the problems all have characteristics that, if not addressed, will produce changes that make human life survival unlikely. Referring to them as should raise the importance of dealing with the apocalypses now.
While the original reference in the book of Revelations was to pestilence, war, famine and death, in the 21st century they could be called pandemics, climate change, nuclear weapons and cyber-security. Each of these have connections with the original four but are new. The common elements of the four problems are that they are essentially borderless applying everywhere in the world and can only be solved by a general change of behavior by everyone regardless of borders. They need to have agreed rules about how to deal with these issues, and if they are not solved, the problems will only increase in size and importance. This means that they cannot be addressed successfully by individual governments or by the “magic of the marketplace”. Instead, much of the leadership on dealing with them seems to have been assigned to international organizations like the United Nations system.
The recent US election offers a renewed opportunity for focus on multilateralism in the interest of world peace and security because of how issues have been raised. With the re-election of Donald Trump there is an urgent need to ensure continuity and stability in the strategic frameworks addressing the Four Problems so that they are manageable. Over the next four years, it is essential that these issues are effectively addressed to prevent them from reaching a critical point where they could become unsolvable. This imperative applies to each of the Four Problems individually and collectively.
Pandemics
Mass contagious illnesses which we call pandemics, have existed throughout human history but have not been frequent. This was because keeping infected people from crossing borders could slow or stop the spread. Movement of people across borders in the last century have led to an increase in pandemics. In 1916, what was called Spanish flu spread through the United States, where the flu started in Kansas, to Europe carried by US soldiers going to fight in World War I. HIV/AIDS started in southern Africa and spread via travel and migration. And Covid-19 started in China and spread to the rest of the world in 2019-2020. Only Covid-19 was addressed globally through the creation of effective vaccines and their distribution via public health institutions following common and agreed procedures, including behavioral means to reduce infection spreads such as masks and social isolation. The main source of agreement was the World Health Organization and specific institutions like GAVI, the Global Health Alliance. Based on the experience with Covid-19, the WHO is negotiating a global convention to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness and response.
The Covid-19 pandemic started during Trump’s first term and was dealt with unevenly. The Trump administration blamed the WHO for not dealing with it because of the organization’s relationship with China, and formally started a process to leave the WHO. This was reversed by the Biden administration. Subsequently, Trump supporters had issues with vaccination, vaccines and procedures, and Trump has promised to revise US policies, procedures and institutions to deal with pandemics in the future. It may again withdraw from the WHO and from the pandemic convention negotiations.
If the United States does not continue to participate, and even lead, the international effort to control and halt pandemics, these will increase in frequency and coverage, become more dangerous.
Climate Change
The increase in global warming as a result of emissions leading to major climate changes is a relatively new problem. While there has always been climate change on the planet, this one is due primarily to human activity, since the increase in emissions from this is the main source causing the increase in the global temperature. This was only agreed by scientists, after considerable research in 1989 at a conference organized by the World Meteorological Organization but was sufficiently worrisome to states that they adopted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992. This was at best a partial agreement, since it stated that climate change was happening and was human-caused, and states had an obligation to deal with it. How to deal with it has not been agreed upon and has been debated every year since. In 2015, a compromise called the Paris Agreement was reached on what states should do, which was unfortunately voluntary, and each state could set its own goals. Subsequently further scientific evidence organized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found that the problem is both more severe and moving much faster than previously anticipated. Actions to reduce emissions are more important and must be achieved quickly by all countries including, especially those who are the largest producers of emissions.
In the Trump first term, based on a belief that rapid climate change was a hoax and that actions to address emissions affected the national economy negatively, the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement. On entering office, the Biden administration rejoined the Agreement and worked to show leadership at the international level, while passing legislation and regulations to reduce emissions. During the last campaign the new Trump administration has reiterated the false statements that climate change is not happening and says that it will withdraw from the Paris Agreement again. While the US is not the largest source of emissions (that is China) it is the second largest source (and highest in per capita terms). If the US withdraws that will reduce the incentive of other emitters to take the necessary steps and may ensure that the world will reach irreversible change within a decade.
Nuclear Weapons and Conflicts That Tempt Them
The possible use of nuclear weapons is the oldest of the problems that have been addressed internationally. This is apocalyptic because the weapons, as they have been developed, are so dangerous in terms of both immediate and long-term effects that, if there is a war using them, humans on the planet would be unlikely to survive. While only a few states have nuclear weapons, the number has been increasing. The main control mechanism has been to prevent expansion of the number of nuclear powers, of which there are nine as of today (US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel) with others, like Iran, nearly there. The system was based in a treaty reached in the 1950’s called Safeguards and an international organization, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was established to administer it. The system has largely worked, although the second Gulf War with Iraq produced challenges. One key factor is whether a state can test a nuclear weapon to prove that it has them, and this has been addressed by the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) adopted in 1996. However, that treaty has not entered into force because none of the nuclear powers have ratified it. Other treaties to reduce weapons have expired and there has been an increase in threats by different countries to use or improve the weapons. An effort to contain Iran’s possible development of weapon has been intermittent. And otherwise seemingly national or sub-regional conflicts like Ukraine and Israel Gaza and Lebanon are now connected with the possible use of nuclear weapons.
In the Trump first term, the US withdrew from the Iran process and had an ambiguous relationship with North Korea. The US like most other nuclear powers, including Russia, began to develop improved versions of weapons. The Biden administration returned to the Iran process, but increased development of weapons. In the next term, the Trump administration might to again withdraw from the Iran talks and increase development of weapons with an increase in the threat of use.
The Internet and Cyber-Security
Communication systems like telephone, telegraph and postal services are by definition cross-border and have had international governance since the mid-nineteenth century, in terms of transit, but governments can control content. Systems like newspapers and magazines have had their content protected by international human rights treaties like the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights adopted in the 1960’s, but governments can regulate their transit across borders. The Internet is new, created in the 1990’s, and its transit system is essentially borderless and unregulated. Its content can only be regulated by the managers of the systems. There is no really agreed system for Internet governance, although there is an increasing understanding that crimes, like identity theft, hacking, data theft, ransomware and cyber terrorism, are increasing and that spreading false information coming both domestically and internationally, effects national and international politics. Early attempts to reach an international consensus on internet governance were largely failures, in part because the managers of internet systems like Google, Meta and Apple did not want to be held accountable for content or use. The increase in problems has led to agreement by the General Assembly in 2024 to the Global Digital Compact that specifies a series of governmental actions to make the Internet more usable and ensuring its quality. How this will be implemented is still being discussed.
The Trump first term dealt with the Internet primarily nationally, including an Executive Order in May 2020 on Preventing Online Censorship addressing how content was dealt with in the United States mostly by stating “In a country that has long cherished the freedom of expression, we cannot allow a limited number of online platforms to hand pick the speech that Americans may access and convey on the internet.” This was revoked by the Biden administration which also supported the Global Digital Compact. What the new Trump administration will do is not yet clear while the need for governance increases due to developments like artificial intelligence.
How to Deal with the Four Problems
Dealing with the Four Problems needs international agreements and mechanisms. How the new Trump administration participates in this process will both determine whether progress can be made and how US leadership is defined. Hopefully it will undertake a thorough review of how it should respond to the problems and how it can show international leadership. As one of the nations most likely to be affected by the problems, a failure to address them effectively would be disastrous.
The views expressed in this editorial are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance or opinions of The Cornell Policy Review, Cornell University, or its affiliated organizations.
